China, Taiwan, nuclear fears
posted by Kate Marie | 3:39 PM | Permalink
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1 comments
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1 Comments:
On one level, this kind of rhetorical sortie is part of an elaborate diplomatic dance that has been going on constantly between Washington and Beijing since 1949. Both sides fear the consequences of any change to the status quo, and both are constantly grooming expectations so that no party will be tempted to rock the boat.
On another level, General Zhu's threat is deadly serious (as any US diplomat or military commander with any sense must have known before he made it, which is what makes it largely rhetorical). A Taiwanese declaration of independence would set off a domestic political crisis in the People's Republic the likes of which has not been seen since the Cultural Revolution, Beijing would be compelled to go to war for its own political survival. Since the contest would effectively be zero-sum, Beijing would not hesitate to use its nuclear arsenal if the US moved aggressively to defend Taiwan. One can only hope that those currently in charge of policy are aware of this fact and will act with due prudence.
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