Yet More Evidence that Undecideds are breaking for Bush
Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports shows a survey that chronicles late-deciding voters choosing Bush:
Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.
Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.
At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily presidential tracking poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).
Even though Rasmussen shows the election at a dead heat, I would think that a tendency of late-deciding voters preferring Bush would have to be good news for Bush, especially in a close race. And especially in the all-important battleground states.
Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.
Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.
At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily presidential tracking poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).
Even though Rasmussen shows the election at a dead heat, I would think that a tendency of late-deciding voters preferring Bush would have to be good news for Bush, especially in a close race. And especially in the all-important battleground states.
posted by Wonderdog | 12:20 PM | Permalink
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4 comments
4 Comments:
I would not worry at all about Bush winning this election if there were no cheating.
Do you know that election officials here decided against having uniformed police officers at polling stations because they would be too intimidating? Yet, the Democrats will be posting lawyers at the polls!
Now, who would intimidate law abiding citizens more: police officers protecting us from possible terrorist threats (uh, no) or lawyers (shudder)?
Careful what you say about lawyers there VA, one contributor to this blog is a lawyer and another is a lawyer in training. Come to think of it, though, the lawyer here at Rumpus does make me shudder a bit.
I just hope W wins by a large enough margin so that they're not able to cheat. I'm crossing my fingers that Bush will get at least 2% of voters who are voting for him just so we don't get a repeat of the election stealing thugs that turned up in Florida last time around.
Um...Wonderdog? Make that TWO lawyers and one lawyer-in-training. Sheesh. Sometimes you take the Wonder out of Wonderdog.
I think Wonderdog can be forgiven for forgetting about Sadeeq. Sadeeq is kind of a phantom contributor here, after all.
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