TFR
As in Total Fertility Rate. Can't say I've given population much consideration lately, but I am reading the interesting tome America Alone by Mark Steyn, and it has me thinking. Here is a list of TFR of the world's countries. A total fertility rate of 2.1 is replacement. The US (and North Korea) are both right there. Look at the countries below the line. They will unbreed themselves into extinction at these rates, unless replaced by immigration. That immigration is happening in Europe. . by a largely muslim population, who, for the most part, has no interest in assimilation and counts a number of bad actors among them ("youths" as Steyn euphemistically calls them). Bottom line. . Europe as you think of it has numbered days.
I grew up with the Zero Population Growth mantra. Too many people on the planet. We can't sustain. It is immoral to have more than two children. I wound up having two but I would say that economis and age had more to do with that. Steyn points out that Europe's democracies are heavy in social services with no kids pulling that caboose to pay for it in the next generation. Interesting read.
I grew up with the Zero Population Growth mantra. Too many people on the planet. We can't sustain. It is immoral to have more than two children. I wound up having two but I would say that economis and age had more to do with that. Steyn points out that Europe's democracies are heavy in social services with no kids pulling that caboose to pay for it in the next generation. Interesting read.
posted by stewdog | 3:49 PM | Permalink
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3 comments
3 Comments:
Though I have not read anything by Mr. Steyn, I did look at the TFR list.
In addition to the points you stated about Europe, what caught my attention was the countries at the top of the list. The rates for so many of these countries have fallen as well.
Have the rates fallen because of the loss of women of child-bearing age due to the AIDS epidemic sweeping through many of these nations? Will there be a further, far more drastic decrease in fertility rates in the next five or ten years and then again once this next generation begins to reproduce?
This also says nothing of the mortality rates of the children born in these nations. If we were to take that into account, I'm curious what the numbers would look like. Would the 'replacement levels' rival those of the European nations? And would there be any immigration into these nations to help offset these changes?
Europe as you think of it has numbered days.
It might not be just Europe.
Good questions all, Lisa. I don't think TFR is takes into consideration AIDS deaths. It is a statistic based upon the average number of children that living women in that population would be expected to produce. But your point is well taken that the fertility rates there may be dropping because the childbearing ages are compressed by disease. The map is amazing. All the colors are in Africa (that's a fact, not a Joe Biden mistep, thank you), but the mortality rate would be high there without AIDS and is off the chart with it.
Funny how we grew up in the 60's and 70's and the mantra was that there were so many people and the planet can't sustain, and now the concern is that there aren't enough coming down the bend.
Steyn is conservative and says what's on his mind, so if you are of the 'leftern' bent, you might not appreciate him, but he has started a dialogue that needed starting. Western Civilization is on the brink, and the Islaofascists can win their war against us "infidels" using the weapons of procration and the West's live and let live attidude. If 'winning' is last man standing, I suppose it is the Mormons and the followers of the Koran in the final jeopardy round.
I just read recently that Japan is not producing enough engineers (and kids) and is trying to entice Indians to their island. Now that will be interesting to watch, given that I've read that Korean families can live there for generations and not be considered Japanese. What happens when the Japanese are all old and the only ones to take care of them are from India (or are robots)?
Also, note on the TFR list that Iran's rate has dropped dramatically. I guess living in the Revolutionary Islamic Paradise doesn't inspire having children.
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