A final look at polls

Horserace Blogger has earned our respect so much that we're going to give him the last word on the polls before the big day tomorrow:

Poll Update

Ohio -- Bush: 48.45%, Kerry: 47.42%
MOE: +/- 1.5%(Respondents: 5,614; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Cleveland Plain-Dealer 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31, University of Cincinatti 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 86.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Florida -- Bush: 48.09%, Kerry: 46.50%
MOE: +/- 1.5%(Respondents: 4,762; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Insider Advantage 11/01, Strategic Vision 11/01, Quinnipiac 11/01, Gallup 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 94.06% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Minnesota -- Bush: 46.02%, Kerry: 48.26%
MOE: +/- 1.7%(Respondents: 2,634; Polls Used: St. Paul Pioneer Press 10/31; Strategic Vision 11/01; Humphrey Institute 10/27; Mason-Dixon 10/30; Gallup 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 94.74% confident that Kerry currently has a lead.

Pennsylvania -- Bush: 47.53%, Kerry: 46.87%
MOE: +/- 1.7%(Respondents: 3,417; Polls Used: Gallup 10/31, Quinnipiac 11/01, Mason Dixon 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01) Based on these results, we can be 70.88% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Wisconsin -- Bush: 48.85%, Kerry: 45.41%
MOE: +/- 1.5%(Respondents: 3,790; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Strategic Vision 11/01, Badger Poll 10/28, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 99.87% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Iowa -- Bush: 47.90%, Kerry: 46.03%
MOE: +/- 1.4%(Respondents: 4,651; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Des Moines Register 10/31, Research 2000 10/28, Strategic Vision 11/01, Gallup 10/31, Mason-Dixon 10/30) Based on these results, we can be 96.56% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Michigan -- Bush: 44.26%, Kerry: 46.01%
MOE: +/- 1.9%(Respondents: 2,425; Polls Used: Mason-Dixon 10/30, Detroit News 10/31,Research 2000 10/28, Strategic Vision 11/01) Based on these results, we can be 89.07% confident that Kerry presently has a lead.

New Mexico -- Bush: 49.17%, Kerry: 47.00%
MOE: +/- 2.4%(Respondents: 1,625; Polls Used: Albuquerque Journal, Mason Dixon) Based on these results, we can be 97.32% confident that Bush has a lead.

Nationwide -- Bush: 48.63%, Kerry: 46.24%
MOE: +/- 0.9%(Respondents: 15,160; Polls Used: Harris 11/1, Marist 11/1, Newsweek 10/30, ABC News 10/31, Gallup 10/31 (sans leaners), GWU/Battleground 10/28-10/31, Fox News 10/29-11/01, Pew 10/31 (sans leaners), NBC News/WSJ 10/31, CBS News/NY Times 11/1, Battleground 10/31) Based on these results, we can be >99.99% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4%
Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2%

Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory.

Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it is indeed Bush 306 or 327 to Kerry 232 or 211.

These numbers should hopefully assuage some of the nervousness tonight. I'm happy with this assessment and am officially done with polls. Let's hope America does the right thing tomorrow. I think we will.